Forecasting future needs and optimal allocation of medical residency positions: the Emilia-Romagna Region case study.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Italian regional health authorities annually negotiate the number of residency grants to be financed by the National government and the number and mix of supplementary grants to be funded by the regional budget. This study provides regional decision-makers with a requirement model to forecast the future demand of specialists at the regional level.

Methods

We have developed a system dynamics (SD) model that projects the evolution of the supply of medical specialists and three demand scenarios across the planning horizon (2030). Demand scenarios account for different drivers: demography, service utilization rates (ambulatory care and hospital discharges) and hospital beds. Based on the SD outputs (occupational and training gaps), a mixed integer programming (MIP) mo

SUBMITTER: Senese F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4328064 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature