A hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the unobservable predation rate on sawfly cocoons by small mammals.

ABSTRACT: Predation by small mammals has been reported as an important mortality factor for the cocoons of sawfly species. However, it is difficult to provide an accurate estimate of newly spun cocoons and subsequent predation rates by small mammals for several reasons. First, all larvae do not spin cocoons at the same time. Second, cocoons are exposed to small mammal predation immediately after being spun. Third, the cocoons of the current generation are indistinguishable from those of the previous generation. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate these values from annual one-time soil sampling datasets. To apply this model to an actual data set, field surveys were conducted in eight stands of larch plantations in central Hokkaido (Japan) from 2009 to 2012. Ten 0.04-m(2) soil sampl

SUBMITTER: Pinkantayong P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4328775 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature