Identifying meteorological drivers for the seasonal variations of influenza infections in a subtropical city – Hong Kong.

ABSTRACT: Compared with temperate areas, the understanding of seasonal variations of influenza infections is lacking in subtropical and tropical regions. Insufficient information about viral activity increases the difficulty of forecasting the disease burden and thus hampers official preparation efforts. Here we identified potential meteorological factors that drove the seasonal variations in influenza infections in a subtropical city, Hong Kong. We fitted the meteorological data and influenza mortality data from 2002 to 2009 in a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model. From the results, air temperature was a common significant driver of seasonal patterns and cold temperature was associated with an increase in transmission intensity for most of the influenza epidemics. Except 2004, the fitted models w

SUBMITTER: Chong KC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4344680 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature