On the predictive ability of mechanistic models for the Haitian cholera epidemic.

ABSTRACT: Predictive models of epidemic cholera need to resolve at suitable aggregation levels spatial data pertaining to local communities, epidemiological records, hydrologic drivers, waterways, patterns of human mobility and proxies of exposure rates. We address the above issue in a formal model comparison framework and provide a quantitative assessment of the explanatory and predictive abilities of various model settings with different spatial aggregation levels and coupling mechanisms. Reference is made to records of the recent Haiti cholera epidemics. Our intensive computations and objective model comparisons show that spatially explicit models accounting for spatial connections have better explanatory power than spatially disconnected ones for short-to-intermediate calibration windows, while

SUBMITTER: Mari L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4345467 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature