Targeting HIV services to male migrant workers in southern Africa would not reverse generalized HIV epidemics in their home communities: a mathematical modeling analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Migrant populations such as mine workers contributed to the spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. We used a mathematical model to estimate the community-wide impact of targeting treatment and prevention to male migrants.

Methods

We augmented an individual-based network model, EMOD-HIV v0.8, to include an age-dependent propensity for males to migrate. Migrants were exposed to HIV outside their home community, but continued to participate in HIV transmission in the community during periodic visits.

Results

Migrant-targeted interventions would have been transformative in the 1980s to 1990s, but post-2015 impacts were more modest. When targetable migrants comprised 2% of adult males, workplace HIV prevention averted 3.5% of community-wide infections over 20 year

SUBMITTER: Klein DJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4379985 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature