An evaluation of nearly-extinct cohort methods for estimating the very elderly populations of australia and new zealand.

ABSTRACT: The rapid growth of very elderly populations requires accurate population estimates up to the highest ages. However, it is recognised that estimates derived from census counts are often unreliable. Methods that make use of death data have not previously been evaluated for Australia and New Zealand. The aim was to evaluate a number of nearly-extinct cohort methods for producing very elderly population estimates by age and sex for Australia and New Zealand. The accuracy of official estimates was also assessed. Variants of three nearly-extinct cohort methods, the Survivor Ratio method, the Das Gupta method and a new method explicitly allowing for falling mortality over time, were evaluated by retrospective application over the period 1976-1996. Estimates by sex and single years of age were co

SUBMITTER: Terblanche W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4388836 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature