Characterizing the transmission potential of zoonotic infections from minor outbreaks.

ABSTRACT: The transmission potential of a novel infection depends on both the inherent transmissibility of a pathogen, and the level of susceptibility in the host population. However, distinguishing between these pathogen- and population-specific properties typically requires detailed serological studies, which are rarely available in the early stages of an outbreak. Using a simple transmission model that incorporates age-stratified social mixing patterns, we present a novel method for characterizing the transmission potential of subcritical infections, which have effective reproduction number R<1, from readily available data on the size of outbreaks. We show that the model can identify the extent to which outbreaks are driven by inherent pathogen transmissibility and pre-existing population immunit

SUBMITTER: Kucharski AJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4393285 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature