Modeling and predicting hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome trends based on meteorological factors in Hu County, China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Hu County is a serious hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) epidemic area, with notable fluctuation of the HFRS epidemic in recent years. This study aimed to explore the optimal model for HFRS epidemic prediction in Hu.

Methods

Three models were constructed and compared, including a generalized linear model (GLM), a generalized additive model (GAM), and a principal components regression model (PCRM). The fitting and predictive adjusted R2 of each model were calculated. Ljung-Box Q tests for fitted and predicted residuals of each model were conducted. The study period was stratified into before (1971-1993) and after (1994-2012) vaccine implementation epochs to avoid the confounding factor of vaccination.

Results

The autocorrelation of fitted and pred

SUBMITTER: Xiao D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4395290 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature