Optimising the expansion of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To estimate the impact of various expansion scenarios of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) on the number of bowel cancer deaths prevented; and to investigate the impact of the expansion scenarios on colonoscopy demand.

Design

MISCAN-Colon, a well established, validated computer simulation model for bowel cancer screening, was adjusted to reflect the Australian situation. In July 2013, we simulated the effects of screening over a 50-year period, starting in 2006. The model parameters included rates of participation in screening and follow-up, rates of identification of cancerous and precancerous lesions, bowel cancer incidence, mortality and the outcomes of the NBCSP. Five implementation scenarios, based on biennial screening using an immunochemic

SUBMITTER: Cenin DR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4412258 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature