Month 2 culture status and treatment duration as predictors of recurrence in pulmonary tuberculosis: model validation and update.

ABSTRACT:

Background

New regimens capable of shortening tuberculosis treatment without increasing the risk of recurrence are urgently needed. A 2013 meta-regression analysis, using data from trials published from 1973 to 1997 involving 7793 patients, identified 2-month sputum culture status and treatment duration as independent predictors of recurrence. The resulting model predicted that if a new 4-month regimen reduced the proportion of patients positive at month 2 to 1%, it would reduce to 10% the risk of a relapse rate >10% in a trial with 680 subjects per arm. The 1% target was far lower than anticipated.

Methods

Data from the 8 arms of 3 recent unsuccessful phase 3 treatment-shortening trials of fluoroquinolone-substituted regimens (REMox, OFLOTUB, and RIFAQUIN) were used to asse

SUBMITTER: Wallis RS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4414505 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature