A Bayesian ensemble approach for epidemiological projections.

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models are powerful tools for epidemiology and can be used to compare control actions. However, different models and model parameterizations may provide different prediction of outcomes. In other fields of research, ensemble modeling has been used to combine multiple projections. We explore the possibility of applying such methods to epidemiology by adapting Bayesian techniques developed for climate forecasting. We exemplify the implementation with single model ensembles based on different parameterizations of the Warwick model run for the 2001 United Kingdom foot and mouth disease outbreak and compare the efficacy of different control actions. This allows us to investigate the effect that discrepancy among projections based on different modeling assumptions has on the ensembl

SUBMITTER: Lindstrom T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4415763 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature