A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics.

ABSTRACT: Infectious diseases spreading in a human population occasionally exhibit sudden transitions in their qualitative dynamics. Previous work has successfully predicted such transitions in New York City's historical measles incidence using the seasonally forced susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model. This work relied on a dataset spanning 45 years (1928-1973), which we have extended to 93 years (1891-1984). We identify additional dynamical transitions in the longer dataset and successfully explain them by analysing attractors and transients of the same mechanistic epidemiological model.

SUBMITTER: Hempel K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4424677 | biostudies-literature | 2015 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature