Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola.

ABSTRACT: As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence data are used to estimate these parameters and guide policy. Some widely used modelling practices lead to potentially large errors in parameter estimates and, consequently, errors in model-based forecasts. Even more worryingly, in such situations, confidence in parameter estimates and forecasts can itself be far overestimated, leading to the potential for large errors that mask their own presence. Fortunately, straightforward and computationally inexpensive alternatives exist that avoid these problems. Here, we first use a simulation study to demonstrate

SUBMITTER: King AA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4426634 | biostudies-literature | 2015 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature