Predicting unprecedented dengue outbreak using imported cases and climatic factors in Guangzhou, 2014.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries, mainly in tropical and subtropical regions, and the incidence has increased 30-fold in the past 50 years. The situation of dengue in China has become more and more severe, with an unprecedented dengue outbreak hitting south China in 2014. Building a dengue early warning system is therefore urgent and necessary for timely and effective response.

Methodology and principal findings

In the study we developed a time series Poisson multivariate regression model using imported dengue cases, local minimum temperature and accumulative precipitation to predict the dengue occurrence in four districts of Guangzhou, China. The time series data were decomposed into seasonal, trend and remainder components using a seasonal-trend de

SUBMITTER: Sang S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4447292 | biostudies-literature | 2015 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature