Regression based quasi-experimental approach when randomisation is not an option: interrupted time series analysis.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Kontopantelis E
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4460815 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Regression based quasi-experimental approach when randomisation is not an option: interrupted time series analysis.
Kontopantelis Evangelos E Doran Tim T Springate David A DA Buchan Iain I Reeves David D
BMJ (Clinical research ed.) 20150609
Similar Datasets
Project description:BACKGROUND:Nonadherence to medications by patients requiring hemodialysis (HD) leads to unfavorable clinical outcomes. Limited data exist to demonstrate the effect of incorporating patient-centered interventions using concepts of medication therapy management and motivational interview by pharmacists on pharmacoadherence in patients requiring HD. Therefore, we assessed the impact of patient-centered pharmacist care on pharmacoadherence and its outcomes in patients requiring HD. METHODS:Adult patients who had received outpatient HD for at least 3 months were enrolled. The study was conducted from October 2016 to April 2017. Pharmacists interviewed the patients at month 1, 2, 4 and 6, and the intervention (comprehensive review) occurred at months 3 and 5. The primary outcome was the change in pharmacoadherence as assessed by pre-HD serum phosphate levels and the differences in the number of medications between patient' self-report and medications records at the electronic healthcare records (EHRs). The secondary outcomes included changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP), glycosylated hemoglobin levels, serum low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels, and the prevalence and types of medication-related problems (MRPs). RESULTS:Seventy-two patients were enrolled. Their median age was 59 (interquartile range: 47-67.5) years, and 53% were men. Pre- and post-intervention pharmacoadherence, as indicated by serum phosphate levels and the differences in the number of medications between patient' self-report and the medication records at the EHRs, did not significantly differ (p = 0.682 and 0.348, respectively). Mean SBP and mean LDL did not significantly change post-intervention. The median number of MRPs declined between Months 3 and 5 (p = 0.002): the prevalence of MRPs at Month 3 was 44.9% (95 confidence interval [CI]: 40.4-49.3) and decreased to 29.8% (95 CI: 25.6-34.3) at Month 5. Drug use without indication was the most frequent MRP (23.9%). CONCLUSIONS:Patient-centered pharmacist care did not result in significant changes in pharmacoadherence. However, its clinical utility as a tool to identify and mitigate MRPs in patients requiring HD is indisputable. TRIAL REGISTRATION:ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03576404 (retrospectively registered on July 3rd, 2018).
| S-EPMC6854789 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 school closures pose a threat to children's wellbeing, but no COVID-19-related studies have assessed children's behaviours over multiple years .ObjectiveTo examine children's obesogenic behaviours during spring and summer of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to previous data collected from the same children during the same calendar period in the 2 years prior.MethodsPhysical activity and sleep data were collected via Fitbit Charge-2 in 231 children (7-12 years) over 6 weeks during spring and summer over 3 years. Parents reported their child's screen time and dietary intake via a survey on 2-3 random days/week.ResultsChildren's behaviours worsened at a greater rate following the pandemic onset compared to pre-pandemic trends. During pandemic spring, sedentary behaviour increased (+79 min; 95% CI = 60.6, 97.1) and MVPA decreased (-10 min, 95% CI = -18.2, -1.1) compared to change in previous springs (2018-2019). Sleep timing shifted later (+124 min; 95% CI = 112.9, 135.5). Screen time (+97 min, 95% CI = 79.0, 115.4) and dietary intake increased (healthy: +0.3 foods, 95% CI = 0.2, 0.5; unhealthy: +1.2 foods, 95% CI = 1.0, 1.5). Similar patterns were observed during summer.ConclusionsCompared to pre-pandemic measures, children's PA, sedentary behaviour, sleep, screen time, and diet were adversely altered during the COVID-19 pandemic. This may ultimately exacerbate childhood obesity.
| S-EPMC8420216 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis is a valuable study design for evaluating the effectiveness of population-level health interventions that have been implemented at a clearly defined point in time. It is increasingly being used to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions ranging from clinical therapy to national public health legislation. Whereas the design shares many properties of regression-based approaches in other epidemiological studies, there are a range of unique features of time series data that require additional methodological considerations. In this tutorial we use a worked example to demonstrate a robust approach to ITS analysis using segmented regression. We begin by describing the design and considering when ITS is an appropriate design choice. We then discuss the essential, yet often omitted, step of proposing the impact model a priori. Subsequently, we demonstrate the approach to statistical analysis including the main segmented regression model. Finally we describe the main methodological issues associated with ITS analysis: over-dispersion of time series data, autocorrelation, adjusting for seasonal trends and controlling for time-varying confounders, and we also outline some of the more complex design adaptations that can be used to strengthen the basic ITS design.
| S-EPMC5407170 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsTo determine whether Medicaid expansion impacted racially more diverse states similarly as racially less diverse states in endocrine therapy (ET) prescriptions.MethodsA quasi-experimental, comparative interrupted time series study of Medicaid-financed ET prescriptions from 2011 to 2018 Medicaid State Drug Utilization Database. The exposures were state's Medicaid expansion and racial diversity status. The outcome was state's quarterly number ET prescriptions per 100,000 non-elderly adult females (NAFs).ResultsDuring the year of expansion, ET prescriptions increased sharply in expansion states but remained flat in nonexpansion states (slope: 11.96 vs. 0.43 prescriptions per 100,000 NAFs per quarter, p < 0.001). After that, the slopes were similar between expansion and nonexpansion states (1.75 vs. 0.24, p = 0.057) but the level of prescriptions in expansion states maintained at a higher level. When stratified by state's racial diversity status, the slope of increase in the first year was sharper for raciallymore diverse expansion states (16.49, p = 0.008) than racially less diverse expansion states (8.46, p < 0.001), resulting in significant differences in ET prescriptions between racially more diverse expansion and nonexpansion states but largely nonsignificant differences between racially less diverse expansion and nonexpansion states.ConclusionsAlthough Medicaid expansion significantly increased ET prescriptions in expansion vs. nonexpansion states, this difference was only observed among raciallymore diverse states. Racially more diverse nonexpansion states had the lowest rates of ET prescriptions and the gaps from racially more diverse expansion states significantly widened after expansion.Policy summaryOur study shows that, before expansion, racially more diverse nonexpansion states had the lowest rates of ET prescriptions. After expansion, the gaps between these states and racially more diverse expansion states significantly widened. These results highlighted the importance of continuing to examine the health impacts of states not expanding Medicaid, including the health equity impacts for low income racial/ethnic minority populations with cancer and other life-threatening diseases.
| S-EPMC9106970 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC7750921 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundOpioids have traditionally been used to manage acute or terminal pain. However, their prolonged use has the potential for abuse, misuse, and addiction. South Korea introduced a new health care IT system named the Narcotics Information Management System (NIMS) with the objective of managing all aspects of opioid use, including manufacturing, distribution, sales, disposal, etc.ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the impact of NIMS on opioid use.MethodsWe conducted an analysis using national claims data from 45,582 patients diagnosed with musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders between 2016 and 2020. Our approach included using an interrupted time-series analysis and constructing segmented regression models. Within these models, we considered the primary intervention to be the implementation of NIMS, while we treated the COVID-19 outbreak as the secondary event. To comprehensively assess inappropriate opioid use, we examined 4 key indicators, as established in previous studies: (1) the proportion of patients on high-dose opioid treatment, (2) the proportion of patients receiving opioid prescriptions from multiple providers, (3) the overlap rate of opioid prescriptions per patient, and (4) the naloxone use rate among opioid users.ResultsDuring the study period, there was a general trend of increasing opioid use. After the implementation of NIMS, significant increases were observed in the trend of the proportion of patients on high-dose opioid treatment (coefficient=0.0271; P=.01) and in the level of the proportion of patients receiving opioid prescriptions from multiple providers (coefficient=0.6252; P=.004). An abrupt decline was seen in the level of the naloxone use rate among opioid users (coefficient=-0.2968; P=.04). While these changes were statistically significant, their clinical significance appears to be minor. No significant changes were observed after both the implementation of NIMS and the COVID-19 outbreak.ConclusionsThis study suggests that, in its current form, the NIMS may not have brought significant improvements to the identified indicators of opioid overuse and misuse. Additionally, the COVID-19 outbreak exhibited no significant influence on opioid use patterns. The absence of real-time monitoring feature within the NIMS could be a key contributing factor. Further exploration and enhancements are needed to maximize the NIMS' impact on curbing inappropriate opioid use.
| S-EPMC10918548 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Interrupted time-series (ITS) designs are a robust and increasingly popular non-randomized study design for strong causal inference in the evaluation of public health interventions. One of the most common techniques for model parameterization in the analysis of ITS designs is segmented regression, which uses a series of indicators and linear terms to represent the level and trend of the time-series before and after an intervention. In this article, we highlight an important error often presented in tutorials and published peer-reviewed papers using segmented regression parameterization for the analyses of ITS designs. We show that researchers cannot simply use the product between their calendar time variable and the indicator variable indicating pre- versus post-intervention time periods to represent the post-intervention linear segment. If researchers use this often-presented parameterization, they will get an erroneous result for the level change in their time-series. We show that researchers must take care to use the product between their intervention variable and the time elapsed since the start of the intervention, rather than the time since the beginning of their study. Thus, the second linear segment of the time-series indexing the post-intervention level and trend should be zero before intervention implementation and begin by counting from zero, rather than counting from the time elapsed since the beginning of the study. We hope that this article can clarify segmented regression parameterization for the analysis of ITS designs and help researchers avoid confusing and erroneous results in the level changes of their time-series.
| S-EPMC8271192 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo evaluate the impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) on global cigarette consumption.DesignTwo quasi-experimental impact evaluations, using interrupted time series analysis (ITS) and in-sample forecast event modelling.Setting and population71 countries for which verified national estimates of cigarette consumption from 1970 to 2015 were available, representing over 95% of the world's cigarette consumption and 85% of the world's population.Main outcome measuresThe FCTC is an international treaty adopted in 2003 that aims to reduce harmful tobacco consumption and is legally binding on the 181 countries that have ratified it. Main outcomes were annual national estimates of cigarette consumption per adult from 71 countries since 1970, allowing global, regional, and country comparisons of consumption levels and trends before and after 2003, with counterfactual control groups modelled using pre-intervention linear time trends (for ITS) and in-sample forecasts (for event modelling).ResultsNo significant change was found in the rate at which global cigarette consumption had been decreasing after the FCTC's adoption in 2003, using either ITS or event modelling. Results were robust after realigning data to the year FCTC negotiations commenced (1999), or to the year when the FCTC first became legally binding in each country. By contrast to global consumption, high income and European countries showed a decrease in annual consumption by over 1000 cigarettes per adult after 2003, whereas low and middle income and Asian countries showed an increased annual consumption by over 500 cigarettes per adult when compared with a counterfactual event model.ConclusionsThis study finds no evidence to indicate that global progress in reducing cigarette consumption has been accelerated by the FCTC treaty mechanism. This null finding, combined with regional differences, should caution against complacency in the global tobacco control community, motivate greater implementation of proven tobacco control policies, encourage assertive responses to tobacco industry activities, and inform the design of more effective health treaties.
| S-EPMC6582266 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Ae. aegypti mosquitoes stably transfected with the intracellular bacterium Wolbachia pipientis ( wMel strain) have been deployed for biocontrol of dengue and related arboviral diseases in multiple countries. Field releases in northern Australia have previously demonstrated near elimination of local dengue transmission from Wolbachia-treated communities, and pilot studies in Indonesia have demonstrated the feasibility and acceptability of the method. We conducted a quasi-experimental trial to evaluate the impact of scaled Wolbachia releases on dengue incidence in an endemic setting in Indonesia. Methods: In Yogyakarta City, Indonesia, following extensive community engagement, wMel Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes were released every two weeks for 13-15 rounds over seven months in 2016-17, in a contiguous 5 km 2 area (population 65,000). A 3 km 2 area (population 34,000) on the opposite side of the city was selected a priori as an untreated control area. Passive surveillance data on notified hospitalised dengue patients was used to evaluate the epidemiological impact of Wolbachia deployments, using controlled interrupted time-series analysis. Results: Rapid and sustained introgression of wMel Wolbachia into local Ae. aegypti populations was achieved. Thirty-four dengue cases were notified from the intervention area and 53 from the control area (incidence 26 vs 79 per 100,000 person-years) during 24 months following Wolbachia deployment. This corresponded in the regression model to a 73% reduction in dengue incidence (95% confidence interval 49%,86%) associated with the Wolbachia intervention. Exploratory analysis including 6 months additional post-intervention observations showed a small strengthening of this effect (30 vs 115 per 100,000 person-years; 76% reduction in incidence, 95%CI 60%,86%). Conclusions: We demonstrate a significant reduction in dengue incidence following successful introgression of Wolbachia into local Ae. aegypti populations in an endemic setting in Indonesia. These findings are consistent with previous field trials in northern Australia, and support the effectiveness of this novel approach for dengue control.
| S-EPMC7403856 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The consumption of antibiotics varies between and within countries. However, our understanding of the key drivers of antibiotic consumption is largely limited to observational studies. Using Indian data that showed substantial differences between states and changes over years, we conducted a quasi-experimental fixed-effects regression study to examine the determinants of private-sector antibiotic consumption. Antibiotic consumption decreased by 10.2 antibiotic doses per 1000 persons per year for every ₹1000 (US$12.9) increase in per-capita gross domestic product. Antibiotic consumption decreased by 46.4 doses per 1000 population per year for every 1% increase in girls' enrollment rate in tertiary education. The biggest determinant of private sector antibiotic use was government spending on health-antibiotic use decreased by 461.4 doses per 1000 population per year for every US$12.9 increase in per-capita government health spending. Economic progress, social progress, and increased public investment in health can reduce private-sector antibiotic use.
| S-EPMC10904839 | biostudies-literature