The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.

ABSTRACT: Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and

SUBMITTER: Meyniel F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4468157 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature