Modeling the Impact of White-Plague Coral Disease in Climate Change Scenarios.

ABSTRACT: Coral reefs are in global decline, with coral diseases increasing both in prevalence and in space, a situation that is expected only to worsen as future thermal stressors increase. Through intense surveillance, we have collected a unique and highly resolved dataset from the coral reef of Eilat (Israel, Red Sea), that documents the spatiotemporal dynamics of a White Plague Disease (WPD) outbreak over the course of a full season. Based on modern statistical methodologies, we develop a novel spatial epidemiological model that uses a maximum-likelihood procedure to fit the data and assess the transmission pattern of WPD. We link the model to sea surface temperature (SST) and test the possible effect of increasing temperatures on disease dynamics. Our results reveal that the likelihood of a sus

SUBMITTER: Zvuloni A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4473065 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature