Changing Malaria Prevalence on the Kenyan Coast since 1974: Climate, Drugs and Vector Control.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Progress toward reducing the malaria burden in Africa has been measured, or modeled, using datasets with relatively short time-windows. These restricted temporal analyses may miss the wider context of longer-term cycles of malaria risk and hence may lead to incorrect inferences regarding the impact of intervention.

Methods

1147 age-corrected Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence (PfPR2-10) surveys among rural communities along the Kenyan coast were assembled from 1974 to 2014. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive generalized linear mixed model was used to interpolate to 279 small areas for each of the 41 years since 1974. Best-fit polynomial splined curves of changing PfPR2-10 were compared to a sequence of plausible explanatory variables related to rainfall,

SUBMITTER: Snow RW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4479373 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature