A direct method to evaluate the time-dependent predictive accuracy for biomarkers.

ABSTRACT: Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and their area under the curve (AUC) are important measures to evaluate the prediction accuracy of biomarkers for time-to-event endpoints (e.g., time to disease progression or death). In this article, we propose a direct method to estimate AUC(t) as a function of time t using a flexible fractional polynomials model, without the middle step of modeling the time-dependent ROC. We develop a pseudo partial-likelihood procedure for parameter estimation and provide a test procedure to compare the predictive performance between biomarkers. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator and test statistics. A major advantage of the proposed method is its ease to make inference and to compare the prediction accuracy acr

SUBMITTER: Shen W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4479968 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature