The Role of Gastroesophageal Reflux and Other Factors during Progression to Esophageal Adenocarcinoma.

ABSTRACT:

Background

U.S. esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) incidence increased over 5-fold between 1975 and 2009. Symptomatic gastroesophageal reflux disease (sGERD) elevates the risk for EAC. However, a simple calculation suggests that changes in sGERD prevalence can explain at most approximately 16% of this trend. Importantly, a mechanistic understanding of the influence of sGERD and other factors (OF) on EAC is lacking.

Methods

A multiscale model was developed to estimate temporal trends for sGERD and OF, and their mechanistic role during carcinogenesis. Model calibration was to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) incidence and age-dependent sGERD data using maximum likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

Results

Among men, 77.8% [95% credibilit

SUBMITTER: Hazelton WD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4491004 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature