Projecting the effect of changes in smoking and obesity on future life expectancy in the United States.

ABSTRACT: We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010-2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and age-25 obesity status observed in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-2006. Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer. We find that changes in both smoking and obesity are ex

SUBMITTER: Preston SH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4495773 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature