The future of life expectancy and life expectancy inequalities in England and Wales: Bayesian spatiotemporal forecasting.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To plan for pensions and health and social services, future mortality and life expectancy need to be forecast. Consistent forecasts for all subnational units within a country are very rare. Our aim was to forecast mortality and life expectancy for England and Wales' districts.

Methods

We developed Bayesian spatiotemporal models for forecasting of age-specific mortality and life expectancy at a local, small-area level. The models included components that accounted for mortality in relation to age, birth cohort, time, and space. We used geocoded mortality and population data between 1981 and 2012 from the Office for National Statistics together with the model with the smallest error to forecast age-specific death rates and life expectancy to 2030 for 375 of England

SUBMITTER: Bennett JE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4502253 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature