Effects of influenza antivirals on individual and population immunity over many epidemic waves.

ABSTRACT: Antivirals are an important defence against novel strains of influenza. However, the impact of widespread drug usage on strain circulation across multiple epidemic waves - via their impact on host immunity - is unknown despite antivirals having the likelihood of extensive use during a pandemic. To explore how drug usage by individuals affects population strain dynamics, we embedded a two-strain model of within-host dynamics within an epidemic model. We found that when 40% of hosts took drugs early during the infectious period, transmission was reduced by 30% and average levels of immunity by 2·9-fold (comparable to antibody concentrations), relative to 14% and 1·5-fold reductions when drugs were taken late. The novel strain was more successful relative to the resident strain when drugs wer

SUBMITTER: Pepin KM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4520436 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature