Empirically Derived Trajectories to Dementia Over 15 Years of Follow-up Identified by Using Mixed Membership Models.

ABSTRACT: Alzheimer disease is the most common form of dementia in the elderly, and the complex relationships among risk factors produce highly variable natural histories from normal cognition through the prodromal stage of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to clinical dementia. We used a novel statistical approach, mixed membership trajectory models, to capture the variety of such pathways in 652 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study Cognition Study over 22 years of follow-up (1992-2014). We identified 3 trajectories: a "healthy" profile with a peak probability of MCI between 95 and 100 years of age and only a 50% probability of dementia by age 100; an "intermediate" profile with a peak probability of MCI between 85 and 90 years of age and progression to dementia between 90 and 95 years; an

SUBMITTER: Lecci F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4528953 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature