The communication of physical science uncertainty in European National Adaptation Strategies.

ABSTRACT: Many European countries have developed National Adaptation Strategies (NAS) to guide adaptation to the expected impacts of climate change. There is a need for more structured communication of the uncertainties related to future climate and its impacts so that adaptation actions can be planned and implemented effectively and efficiently. We develop a novel uncertainty assessment framework for comparing approaches to the inclusion and communication of physical science uncertainty, and use it to analyse ten European NAS. The framework is based on but modifies and integrates the notion of the "cascade of uncertainties" and the NUSAP (Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree) methodology to include the overarching assessment categories of Numerical Value, Spread, Depth and Substantiation. Our as

SUBMITTER: Lorenz S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4555652 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature