The determinant of periodicity in Mycoplasma pneumoniae incidence: an insight from mathematical modelling.

ABSTRACT: Until the early 1990 s, incidences of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) infection showed three to five year epidemic cycles in multiple countries, however, the mechanism for the MP epidemic cycle has not been understood. Here, we investigate the determinant of periodicity in MP incidence by employing a mathematical model describing MP transmission dynamics. Three candidates for the determinant of periodicity were evaluated: school-term forcing, minor variance in the duration of immunity, and epidemiological interference between MP serotypes. We find that minor variation in the duration of immunity at the population level must be considered essential for the MP epidemic cycle because the MP cyclic incidence pattern did not replicate without it. Minor variation, in this case, is a less dispersed di

SUBMITTER: Omori R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4585982 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature