Game theory of pre-emptive vaccination before bioterrorism or accidental release of smallpox.

ABSTRACT: Smallpox was eradicated in the 1970s, but new outbreaks could be seeded by bioterrorism or accidental release. Substantial vaccine-induced morbidity and mortality make pre-emptive mass vaccination controversial, and if vaccination is voluntary, then there is a conflict between self- and group interests. This conflict can be framed as a tragedy of the commons, in which herd immunity plays the role of the commons, and free-riding (i.e. not vaccinating pre-emptively) is analogous to exploiting the commons. This game has been analysed previously for a particular post-outbreak vaccination scenario. We consider several post-outbreak vaccination scenarios and compare the expected increase in mortality that results from voluntary versus imposed vaccination. Below a threshold level of post-outbreak

SUBMITTER: Molina C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4590493 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature