The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe.

ABSTRACT: We quantify the 'permanent' socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual--i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake--we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake. Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter. Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-r

SUBMITTER: duPont W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4591010 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature