Cholera Transmission in Ouest Department of Haiti: Dynamic Modeling and the Future of the Epidemic.

ABSTRACT: In the current study, a comprehensive, data driven, mathematical model for cholera transmission in Haiti is presented. Along with the inclusion of short cycle human-to-human transmission and long cycle human-to-environment and environment-to-human transmission, this novel dynamic model incorporates both the reported cholera incidence and remote sensing data from the Ouest Department of Haiti between 2010 to 2014. The model has separate compartments for infectious individuals that include different levels of infectivity to reflect the distribution of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in the population. The environmental compartment, which serves as a source of exposure to toxigenic V. cholerae, is also modeled separately based on the biology of causative bacterium, the shedding of V. chole

SUBMITTER: Kirpich A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4619523 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature