On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in Ecology.

ABSTRACT: Ecologists are increasingly using statistical models to predict animal abundance and occurrence in unsampled locations. The reliability of such predictions depends on a number of factors, including sample size, how far prediction locations are from the observed data, and similarity of predictive covariates in locations where data are gathered to locations where predictions are desired. In this paper, we propose extending Cook's notion of an independent variable hull (IVH), developed originally for application with linear regression models, to generalized regression models as a way to help assess the potential reliability of predictions in unsampled areas. Predictions occurring inside the generalized independent variable hull (gIVH) can be regarded as interpolations, while predictions occur

SUBMITTER: Conn PB 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4619888 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature