The whole iceberg: estimating the incidence of yellow fever virus infection from the number of severe cases.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Like many infectious agents, yellow fever (YF) virus only causes disease in a proportion of individuals it infects and severe illness only represents the tip of the iceberg relative to the total number of infections, the more critical factor for virus transmission.

Methods

We compiled data on asymptomatic infections, mild disease, severe disease (fever with jaundice or hemorrhagic symptoms) and fatalities from 11 studies in Africa and South America between 1969 and 2011. We used a Bayesian model to estimate the probability of each infection outcome.

Results

For YF virus infections, the probability of being asymptomatic was 0.55 (95% credible interval [CI] 0.37-0.74), mild disease 0.33 (95% CI 0.13-0.52) and severe disease 0.12 (95% CI 0.05-0.26). The probab

SUBMITTER: Johansson MA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4632853 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature