Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species.

ABSTRACT: Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years) scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was

SUBMITTER: Geary M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4646449 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature