On the definition and identifiability of the alleged "hiatus" in global warming.

ABSTRACT: Recent public debate and the scientific literature have frequently cited a "pause" or "hiatus" in global warming. Yet, multiple sources of evidence show that climate change continues unabated, raising questions about the status of the "hiatus". To examine whether the notion of a "hiatus" is justified by the available data, we first document that there are multiple definitions of the "hiatus" in the literature, with its presumed onset spanning a decade. For each of these definitions we compare the associated temperature trend against trends of equivalent length in the entire record of modern global warming. The analysis shows that the "hiatus" trends are encompassed within the overall distribution of observed trends. We next assess the magnitude and significance of all possible trends up to

SUBMITTER: Lewandowsky S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4657026 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature