Beyond the Mean: Sensitivities of the Variance of Population Growth.

ABSTRACT: Populations in variable environments are described by both a mean growth rate and a variance of stochastic population growth. Increasing variance will increase the width of confidence bounds around estimates of population size, growth, probability of and time to quasi-extinction. However, traditional sensitivity analyses of stochastic matrix models only consider the sensitivity of the mean growth rate. We derive an exact method for calculating the sensitivity of the variance in population growth to changes in demographic parameters. Sensitivities of the variance also allow a new sensitivity calculation for the cumulative probability of quasi-extinction. We apply this new analysis tool to an empirical dataset on at-risk polar bears to demonstrate its utility in conservation biology We find

SUBMITTER: Trotter MV 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4666685 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature