Joy Leads to Overconfidence, and a Simple Countermeasure.

ABSTRACT: Overconfidence has been identified as a source of suboptimal decision making in many real-life domains, with often far-reaching consequences. This study identifies a mechanism that can cause overconfidence and demonstrates a simple, effective countermeasure in an incentive-compatible experimental study. We observed that joy induced overconfidence if the reason for joy (an unexpected gift) was unrelated to the judgment task and if participants were not made specifically aware of this mood manipulation. In contrast, we observed well-calibrated judgments among participants in a control group who were in their resting mood. Furthermore, we found well-calibrated judgments among participants who received the joyful mood induction together with questions that forced them to reflect on their curre

SUBMITTER: Koellinger P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4683002 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature