Dynamic model of nonmedical opioid use trajectories and potential policy interventions.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioid analgesics (POA) increased dramatically over the past two decades and remains a major health problem in the United States, contributing to over 16 000 accidental poisoning deaths in 2010.

Objectives

To create a systems-oriented theory/model to explain the historical behaviors of interest, including the various populations of nonmedical opioid users and accidental overdose mortality within those populations. To use the model to explore policy interventions including tamper-resistant drug formulations and strategies for reducing diversion of opioid medicines.

Methods

A system dynamics model was constructed to represent the population of people who initiate nonmedical POA usage. The model incorporates use trajectories in

SUBMITTER: Wakeland W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4685710 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature