Transmission network of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

ABSTRACT: Understanding the growth and spatial expansion of (re)emerging infectious disease outbreaks, such as Ebola and avian influenza, is critical for the effective planning of control measures; however, such efforts are often compromised by data insufficiencies and observational errors. Here, we develop a spatial-temporal inference methodology using a modified network model in conjunction with the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, a Bayesian inference method equipped to handle observational errors. The combined method is capable of revealing the spatial-temporal progression of infectious disease, while requiring only limited, readily compiled data. We use this method to reconstruct the transmission network of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone and identify source and sink regions. Our

SUBMITTER: Yang W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4685836 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature