Partially observed epidemics in wildlife hosts: modelling an outbreak of dolphin morbillivirus in the northwestern Atlantic, June 2013-2014.

ABSTRACT: Morbilliviruses cause major mortality in marine mammals, but the dynamics of transmission and persistence are ill understood compared to terrestrial counterparts such as measles; this is especially true for epidemics in cetaceans. However, the recent outbreak of dolphin morbillivirus in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean can provide new insights into the epidemiology and spatio-temporal spread of this pathogen. To deal with uncertainties surrounding the ecology of this system (only stranded animals were observed), we develop a statistical framework that can extract key information about the underlying transmission process given only sparse data. Our self-exciting Poisson process model suggests that individuals are infectious for at most 24 days and can transfer infection up to two latitude de

SUBMITTER: Morris SE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4685842 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature