Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change.

ABSTRACT: Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European

SUBMITTER: Trnka M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4685845 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature