The Predicted Impact of Ipilimumab Usage on Survival in Previously Treated Advanced or Metastatic Melanoma in the UK.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Evaluating long-term prognosis is important for physicians, patients and payers. This study reports the results of a model developed to predict long-term survival for UK patients receiving second-line ipilimumab.

Methods

MDX010-20 trial data were used to predict survival for ipilimumab versus UK best supportive care. Two aspects of this analysis required novel approaches: 1) The overall survival Kaplan-Meier data shape is unusual: an initial steep decline is observed before a 'plateau'. 2) The need to extrapolate beyond the trial end (4.6 years). Based upon UK clinician advice, a three-part curve fit was used: from 0-1.5 years, Kaplan-Meier data from the trial; from 1.5-5 years, standard parametric curve fits; after 5 years, long-term data from the American Joint

SUBMITTER: Larkin J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4689358 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature