Conditional survival estimate of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: a dynamic prediction based on a multicenter cohort.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Counseling patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) on their individual risk of short-term mortality is challenging. This study aimed to develop a conditional survival estimate (CSE) for predicting individualized mortality risk in ACHBLF patients.

Methods

We performed a large prospective cohort study of 278 ACHBLF patients from December 2010 to December 2013 at three participating medical centers. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cumulative overall survival (OS). Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to analyze the risk factors associated with OS. 4-week CSE at "X" week after diagnostic established were calculated as CS4 = OS(X+4)/OS(X).

Results

The actual OS at 2, 4, 6, 8, 12 weeks were 80.5%, 71.8%,

SUBMITTER: Zheng MH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4695116 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature