Mapping Physiological Suitability Limits for Malaria in Africa Under Climate Change.

ABSTRACT: We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of

SUBMITTER: Ryan SJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4700390 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature