The impact of rainfall and temperature on the spatial progression of cases during the chikungunya re-emergence in Thailand in 2008-2009.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In 2008, chikungunya virus (CHIKV) re-emerged in Thailand after more than a decade of absence. Cases first appeared in the extreme southern region of the country and advanced northward approx. 300 km over the next 18 months. The spatial advance of CHIKV cases appeared to occur at two rates, initially progressing slowly and then increasing in speed. We hypothesize that climatic variation affected the transmission of CHIKV in the country.

Methods

To determine the effect of climate on CHIKV transmission, we evaluated models where climate affects the transmission rate from mosquitoes to humans; extrinsic incubation period; fertility rate of mosquitoes; and the mortality rate of mosquito larvae. We compared these models to models that did not include climate effects.

SUBMITTER: Chadsuthi S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4731005 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature