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Modeling Verdict Outcomes Using Social Network Measures: The Watergate and Caviar Network Cases.

ABSTRACT: Modelling criminal trial verdict outcomes using social network measures is an emerging research area in quantitative criminology. Few studies have yet analyzed which of these measures are the most important for verdict modelling or which data classification techniques perform best for this application. To compare the performance of different techniques in classifying members of a criminal network, this article applies three different machine learning classifiers-Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes and Random Forest-with a range of social network measures and the necessary databases to model the verdicts in two real-world cases: the U.S. Watergate Conspiracy of the 1970's and the now-defunct Canada-based international drug trafficking ring known as the Caviar Network. In both cases it was found that the Random Forest classifier did better than either Logistic Regression or Naïve Bayes, and its superior performance was statistically significant. This being so, Random Forest was used not only for classification but also to assess the importance of the measures. For the Watergate case, the most important one proved to be betweenness centrality while for the Caviar Network, it was the effective size of the network. These results are significant because they show that an approach combining machine learning with social network analysis not only can generate accurate classification models but also helps quantify the importance social network variables in modelling verdict outcomes. We conclude our analysis with a discussion and some suggestions for future work in verdict modelling using social network measures.

SUBMITTER: Masias VH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4732755 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling Verdict Outcomes Using Social Network Measures: The Watergate and Caviar Network Cases.

Masías Víctor Hugo VH Valle Mauricio M Morselli Carlo C Crespo Fernando F Vargas Augusto A Laengle Sigifredo S

PloS one 20160129 1

Modelling criminal trial verdict outcomes using social network measures is an emerging research area in quantitative criminology. Few studies have yet analyzed which of these measures are the most important for verdict modelling or which data classification techniques perform best for this application. To compare the performance of different techniques in classifying members of a criminal network, this article applies three different machine learning classifiers-Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes ...[more]

PMID: 26824351

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Project description:The aim of this work was to extend the VERDICT-MRI framework for modelling brain tumours, enabling comprehensive characterisation of both intra- and peritumoural areas with a particular focus on cellular and vascular features. Diffusion MRI data were acquired with multiple b-values (ranging from 50 to 3500 s/mm2), diffusion times, and echo times in 21 patients with brain tumours of different types and with a wide range of cellular and vascular features. We fitted a selection of diffusion models that resulted from the combination of different types of intracellular, extracellular, and vascular compartments to the signal. We compared the models using criteria for parsimony while aiming at good characterisation of all of the key histological brain tumour components. Finally, we evaluated the parameters of the best-performing model in the differentiation of tumour histotypes, using ADC (Apparent Diffusion Coefficient) as a clinical standard reference, and compared them to histopathology and relevant perfusion MRI metrics. The best-performing model for VERDICT in brain tumours was a three-compartment model accounting for anisotropically hindered and isotropically restricted diffusion and isotropic pseudo-diffusion. VERDICT metrics were compatible with the histological appearance of low-grade gliomas and metastases and reflected differences found by histopathology between multiple biopsy samples within tumours. The comparison between histotypes showed that both the intracellular and vascular fractions tended to be higher in tumours with high cellularity (glioblastoma and metastasis), and quantitative analysis showed a trend toward higher values of the intracellular fraction (fic) within the tumour core with increasing glioma grade. We also observed a trend towards a higher free water fraction in vasogenic oedemas around metastases compared to infiltrative oedemas around glioblastomas and WHO 3 gliomas as well as the periphery of low-grade gliomas. In conclusion, we developed and evaluated a multi-compartment diffusion MRI model for brain tumours based on the VERDICT framework, which showed agreement between non-invasive microstructural estimates and histology and encouraging trends for the differentiation of tumour types and sub-regions.

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Modeling Verdict Outcomes Using Social Network Measures: The Watergate and Caviar Network Cases.

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Modeling Verdict Outcomes Using Social Network Measures: The Watergate and Caviar Network Cases.

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