Simulation of Spread of African Swine Fever, Including the Effects of Residues from Dead Animals.

ABSTRACT: To study the spread of African swine fever (ASF) within a pig unit and the impact of unit size on ASF spread, a simulation model was created. In the model, an animal can be in one of the following stages: susceptible, latent, subclinical, clinical, or recovered. Animals can be infectious during the subclinical stage and are fully infectious during the clinical stage. ASF virus (ASFV) infection through residues of dead animals in the slurries was also modeled in an exponentially fading-out pattern. Low and high transmission rates for ASFV were tested in the model. Robustness analysis was carried out in order to study the impact of uncertain parameters on model predictions. The results showed that the disease may fade out within the pig unit without a major outbreak. Furthermore, they showed

SUBMITTER: Halasa T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4735426 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature