Forecasting paediatric malaria admissions on the Kenya Coast using rainfall.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Malaria is a vector-borne disease which, despite recent scaled-up efforts to achieve control in Africa, continues to pose a major threat to child survival. The disease is caused by the protozoan parasite Plasmodium and requires mosquitoes and humans for transmission. Rainfall is a major factor in seasonal and secular patterns of malaria transmission along the East African coast.

Objective

The goal of the study was to develop a model to reliably forecast incidences of paediatric malaria admissions to Kilifi District Hospital (KDH).

Design

In this article, we apply several statistical models to look at the temporal association between monthly paediatric malaria hospital admissions, rainfall, and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Trend and seasonally adju

SUBMITTER: Karuri SW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4740093 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature