Browse
Submit Data
Databases
API
Help

Dataset Information

52 Views

0 Connections

0 Citations

0 Reanalyses

0 Downloads

Omics score: 0

Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity.

ABSTRACT: The severity of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often summarized by its lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and the climatological LMI distribution is a fundamental feature of the climate system. The distinctive bimodality of the LMI distribution means that major storms (LMI >96 kt) are not very rare compared with less intense storms. Rapid intensification (RI) is the dramatic strengthening of a TC in a short time, and is notoriously difficult to forecast or simulate. Here we show that the bimodality of the LMI distribution reflects two types of storms: those that undergo RI during their lifetime (RI storms) and those that do not (non-RI storms). The vast majority (79%) of major storms are RI storms. Few non-RI storms (6%) become major storms. While the importance of RI has been recognized in weather forecasting, our results demonstrate that RI also plays a crucial role in the TC climatology.

SUBMITTER: Lee CY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4742962 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Json Xml

Publications

Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity.

Lee Chia-Ying CY Tippett Michael K MK Sobel Adam H AH Camargo Suzana J SJ

Nature communications 20160203

The severity of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often summarized by its lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and the climatological LMI distribution is a fundamental feature of the climate system. The distinctive bimodality of the LMI distribution means that major storms (LMI >96 kt) are not very rare compared with less intense storms. Rapid intensification (RI) is the dramatic strengthening of a TC in a short time, and is notoriously difficult to forecast or simulate. Here we show that the bimodality o ...[more]

PMID: 26838056

Similar Datasets

Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions.

Project description:Rapid intensification (RI) is an essential process in the development of strong tropical cyclones and a major challenge in prediction. RI in offshore regions is more threatening to coastal populations and economies. Although much effort has been devoted to studying basin-wide temporal-spatial fluctuations, variations of global RI events in offshore regions remain uncertain. Here, we show that compared with open oceans, where the annual RI counts do not show significant changes, offshore areas within 400 km of the coastline have experienced a significant increase in RI events, with the count tripling from 1980 to 2020. Furthermore, thermodynamic environments present more favorable conditions for this trend, and climate models show that global ocean warming has enhanced such changes. This work yields an important finding that an increasing threat of RI in coastal regions has occurred in the preceding decades, which may continue under a future warming climate.

| S-EPMC10449825 | biostudies-literature

A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification

Project description:Tropical cyclone rapid intensification events often cause destructive hurricane landfalls because they are associated with the strongest storms and forecasts with the highest errors. Multi-decade observational datasets of tropical cyclone behavior have recently enabled documentation of upward trends in tropical cyclone rapid intensification in several basins. However, a robust anthropogenic signal in global intensification trends and the physical drivers of intensification trends have yet to be identified. To address these knowledge gaps, here we compare the observed trends in intensification and tropical cyclone environmental parameters to simulated natural variability in a high-resolution global climate model. In multiple basins and the global dataset, we detect a significant increase in intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing. Furthermore, thermodynamic environments around tropical cyclones have become more favorable for intensification, and climate models show anthropogenic warming has significantly increased the probability of these changes. This study shows intensification rates of tropical cyclones around the world have significantly increased, and environmental conditions around storms are becoming more favorable. Human-caused climate change is contributing to both trends.

| S-EPMC9636401 | biostudies-literature

Ocean barrier layers' effect on tropical cyclone intensification.

Project description:Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are "quasi-permanent" features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

| S-EPMC3437877 | biostudies-other

Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates.

Project description:Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify are typically associated with the highest forecast errors and cause a disproportionate amount of human and financial losses. Therefore, it is crucial to understand if, and why, there are observed upward trends in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Here, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982-2009. We compare the observed trends to natural variability in bias-corrected, high-resolution, global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of tropical cyclone intensification. Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale.

| S-EPMC6367364 | biostudies-literature

Advancing forecasting capabilities: A contrastive learning model for forecasting tropical cyclone rapid intensification.

Project description:Tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly those that rapidly intensify (RI), pose a significant threat due to the uncertainty in forecasting them. RI TC periods, which intensify by at least 13 m/s within 24 h, remain challenging to forecast accurately. Existing models achieve a probability of detection (POD) of 82.6% and a false alarm rate (FARate) of 27.2%. To address this, we developed a contrastive-based RI TC forecasting (RITCF-contrastive) model, utilizing satellite infrared imagery alongside atmospheric and oceanic data. The RITCF-contrastive model was tested on 1,149 TC periods in the Northwest Pacific from 2020 to 2021, achieving a POD of 92.3% and a FARate of 8.9%. RITCF-contrastive improves on previous models by addressing sample imbalance and incorporating TC structural features, leading to a 11.7% improvement in POD and a 3 times reduction in FARate compared to existing deep learning methods. The RITCF-contrastive model not only enhances RI TC forecasting but also offers a unique approach to forecasting these dangerous weather events.

| S-EPMC11789009 | biostudies-literature

Dynamics and Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in Ensemble Simulations of Hurricane Patricia (2015).

Project description:Hurricane Patricia (2015) over the eastern Pacific was a record-breaking tropical cyclone (TC) under a very favorable environment during its rapid intensification (RI) period, which makes it an optimal real case for studying RI dynamics and predictability. In this study, we performed ensemble Kalman filter analyses at Patricia's early development stage using both traditional observations and the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) field campaign data. It is shown that assimilating the inner-core TCI observations produces a stronger initial vortex and significantly improves the prediction of RI. Analysis of observation sensitivity experiments shows that the deep-layer dropsonde observations have high impact on both the primary and secondary circulations for the entire troposphere while the radar observations have the most impact on the primary circulations near aircraft flight level. A wide range of intensification scenarios are obtained through two sets of ensemble forecasts initialized with and without assimilating the TCI data prior to the RI onset. Verification of the ensemble forecasts against the TCI observations during the RI period shows that forecast errors toward later stages can originate from two different error sources at early stages of the vortex structure: One is a timing error from a delayed vortex development such that the TC evolution is the same but shifted in time; the other is due to a totally different storm such that there is no moment in time the simulated storm can obtain a correct TC structure.

| S-EPMC9287007 | biostudies-literature

Westward migration of tropical cyclone rapid-intensification over the Northwestern Pacific during short duration El Nino.

Project description:The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can significantly affect the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific (WNP). However, ENSO events have various durations, which can lead to different atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Here we show that during short duration El Niño events, the WNP tropical cyclone rapid-intensification mean occurrence position migrates westward by ~8.0° longitude, which is caused by reduced vertical wind shear, increased mid-tropospheric humidity, and enhanced tropical cyclone heat potential over the westernmost WNP. The changes in these factors are caused by westward advected upper ocean heat during the decaying phase of a short duration El Niño. As super El Niño events tend to have short durations and their frequency is projected to increase under global warming, our findings have important implications for future projections of WNP tropical cyclone activity.

| S-EPMC5904124 | biostudies-literature

Observed increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates.

Project description:Quickly intensifying tropical cyclones (TCs) are exceptionally hazardous for Atlantic coastlines. An analysis of observed maximum changes in wind speed for Atlantic TCs from 1971 to 2020 indicates that TC intensification rates have already changed as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have warmed the planet and oceans. Mean maximum TC intensification rates are up to 28.7% greater in a modern era (2001-2020) compared to a historical era (1971-1990). In the modern era, it is about as likely for TCs to intensify by at least 50 kts in 24 h, and more likely for TCs to intensify by at least 20 kts within 24 h than it was for TCs to intensify by these amounts in 36 h in the historical era. Finally, the number of TCs that intensify from a Category 1 hurricane (or weaker) into a major hurricane within 36 h has more than doubled in the modern era relative to the historical era. Significance tests suggest that it would have been statistically impossible to observe the number of TCs that intensified in this way during the modern era if rates of intensification had not changed from the historical era.

| S-EPMC10587146 | biostudies-literature

Equatorial waves as useful precursors to tropical cyclone occurrence and intensification.

Project description:Understanding and prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity on the medium range remains challenging. Here, we find that the pre-existing westward-moving equatorial waves can inform the risk of TC occurrence and intensification, based on a dataset obtained by synchronising objectively identified TCs and equatorial waves in a climate reanalysis. Globally, westward-moving equatorial waves can be precursors to 60-70% of pre-tropical cyclogenesis events, and to >80% of the events with the strongest vorticity, related to the favourable environmental conditions within the pouch of equatorial waves. We further find that when storms are in-phase with westward-moving equatorial waves, the intensification rate of TCs is augmented, whilst in other phases of the waves, storm intensity grows more slowly, or even decays. Coherent wave packets associated with TCs are identifiable up to two weeks ahead. Our findings show that westward-moving equatorial waves can be useful medium-range precursors to TC activity.

| S-EPMC9889306 | biostudies-literature

The increasing variability of tropical cyclone lifetime maximum intensity.

Project description:This study investigates long-term changes in the variability of TC intensity of global tropical cyclones, a topic which has been relatively infrequently studied to date. Our study finds that the variability of global TC lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), as measured by the LMI standard deviation, increases during 1981-2016. The increasing trend in LMI variability is statistically significant for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, with three individual TC basins: the western North Pacific, the South Indian and the South Pacific also having statistically significant increases. This increasing trend primarily results from distinct changes in the relative percentages of TCs with different intensities. When comparing two periods: 1981-1998 and 1999-2016, the proportions of weak and strong TCs increase, whereas moderate TCs occur relatively less frequently. This bimodal pattern of observed LMI distribution change is further linked to opposite trends in the average intensities of TCs that undergo rapid intensification (RI) during their lifetime (RI TCs) and those that do not (non-RI TCs). The LMI distributions of RI and non-RI TCs migrate to higher and lower intensities, respectively. Our results demonstrate from an observational perspective that strong TCs have strengthened while weak TCs have weakened as the global climate has warmed since 1981.

| S-EPMC6226437 | biostudies-literature

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

OmicsDI is an Elixir interoperability service. Learn more ›

Tweets

OmicsDI Databases

PRIDE
PeptideAtlas
MassIVE
JPOST Repository
Physiome Model Repository

EGA
EVA
ENA
LINCS
PAXDB
Cell Collective

MetaboLights
Metabolomics Workbench
MetabolomeExpress
GNPS
BioModels
FAIRDOMHub

ArrayExpress
dbGaP
ExpressionAtlas
GEO
NODE

Information

Databases
Help
API
Contact us
Code on GitHub
Terms of use
Submit Data