Climate and the Timing of Imported Cases as Determinants of the Dengue Outbreak in Guangzhou, 2014: Evidence from a Mathematical Model.

ABSTRACT: As the world's fastest spreading vector-borne disease, dengue was estimated to infect more than 390 million people in 2010, a 30-fold increase in the past half century. Although considered to be a non-endemic country, mainland China had 55,114 reported dengue cases from 2005 to 2014, of which 47,056 occurred in 2014. Furthermore, 94% of the indigenous cases in this time period were reported in Guangdong Province, 83% of which were in Guangzhou City. In order to determine the possible determinants of the unprecedented outbreak in 2014, a population-based deterministic model was developed to describe dengue transmission dynamics in Guangzhou. Regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) was adopted to calibrate the model and entomological surveillance data was used to validate the mosquito submodel.

SUBMITTER: Cheng Q 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4749339 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature