Near-linear response of mean monsoon strength to a broad range of radiative forcings.

ABSTRACT: Theoretical models have been used to argue that seasonal mean monsoons will shift abruptly and discontinuously from wet to dry stable states as their radiative forcings pass a critical threshold, sometimes referred to as a "tipping point." Further support for a strongly nonlinear response of monsoons to radiative forcings is found in the seasonal onset of the South Asian summer monsoon, which is abrupt compared with the annual cycle of insolation. Here it is shown that the seasonal mean strength of monsoons instead exhibits a nearly linear dependence on a wide range of radiative forcings. First, a previous theory that predicted a discontinuous, threshold response is shown to omit a dominant stabilizing term in the equations of motion; a corrected theory predicts a continuous and nearly lin

SUBMITTER: Boos WR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4760792 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature