Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases.

ABSTRACT: For many societally important science-based decisions, data are inadequate, unreliable or non-existent, and expert advice is sought. In such cases, procedures for eliciting structured expert judgments (SEJ) are increasingly used. This raises questions regarding validity and reproducibility. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert's statistical accuracy and informativeness, d

SUBMITTER: Aspinall WP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4773223 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature